Chuyển dịch cơ cấu kinh tế ngành của thành phố hà nội đến năm 2030 theo hướng phát triển bền vững tt tiếng anh

PREFACE
1. Reason for choosing a dissertation topic
The economic structure, which is an attribute of the economic system, reflects the
nature and level of development of the economic system. Changes are in both the
quantity and quality of the economic structure, especially the sectoral economic
structure of a country or a locality, if appropriate, it will promote sustainable economic
development. In recent years, scientists and managers have paid much attention to the
economic structural transformation towards sustainable development at the national
level, but at the local level (provinces and central cities) has not been properly
concerned. Many theoretical aspects about the economic structure of the central cities
(which the author considered as big cities) towards sustainable development have not
been fully and systematically studied.
Hanoi is the capital of Vietnam, after being expanded in administrative boundaries, its
economy has developed associated with the process of the economic structural
transformation through a number of positive signs: the sectoral economic structure
has new features, development (industry and services increase rapidly, new products
appear) but not modern. The pace of the economic structural transformation towards
the goal of sustainable development is slow. The contribution of the economic
structural transformation to the efficiency of the economic development is still limited,
the efficiency and competitiveness are low, causing many shortcomings in the social
and environmental fields. Today, in the context of globalization, the industrial
revolution 4.0 which has opened up many opportunities and challenges, poses the
need for economic structural transformation towards sustainable development to
promote the advantages of the capital and increase the role of Hanoi capital for the
whole country is an urgent requirement for Hanoi.
For the reasons mentioned above, the author chose the dissertation topic of
"Transforming the economic structure of the Hanoi to the year 2030 towards the
sustainable development" as the subject of research thesis on doctoral thesis in
economic development.
2. Objectives of the dissertation
The dissertation is designed to clarify the basic theoretical issues on the economic
structural transformation of large cities in the direction of sustainable development
and propose some orientations and solutions for the economic structural
transformation of Hanoi to the year 2030 in the direction of sustainable development
scientifically and feasibly.
3. Theory and framework of the thesis
3.1. Basic theory
The dissertation is based on the following fundamental theories: (i) Firstly, the
structural theory of the world structural union with the view that structure is the
property of the economy; it determines the nature and ability of the economic
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development; (ii) Second, the theory of capital with the idea that economic structure is
the consequence of investment, increasing investment capital and capital structural
changes that are critical to change in nature of economic structure change for a
country, a big city; (iii) Third, institutional-based economic development theory with
the notion of critical problem theory for a city's sectoral economic structure can not be
absent of a good governance and friendly with investors; (iv) Finally, sustainable
development theory with the view of modernization and environmentally friendly is
an important issue not only in the present but also in the future.
3.2. Research framework of the dissertation
The author proposed the research framework for the dissertation as shown in Figure 1
below:
Figure 1. Theoretical framework
(Source: Author)
4. Subjects and scope of research
4.1. Subjects: The subject of the dissertation research is the sectoral economic
structure and economic structural transformation of Hanoi in the period of 2009-2017
and up to the year 2030 in the direction of sustainable development.
4.2. The Research scope
- Time: Study on the current situation of the economic structural transformation in the
period of 2009 - 2017; Proposing solutions and orientations towards the year 2030.
- Space: Study the sectoral economic structure in Hanoi in the direction of sustainable
development, in the relationship with the country and other provinces.
- Content: Study the sectoral economic structure, both theoretical and practical
aspects, researching current situation in the period of 2009-2017, orientations and
solutions for the sectoral economic structure of Hanoi up to the year 2030 in the
direction of sustainable development.
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5. Approaches and methods of research
The dissertation approaches the research subjects in the following major aspects:
System approach; Approach from theory to practice; Approach from macro to micro;
Approach by the principle of cause and effect.
The research methods: systematic analysis, statistical analysis, comparatives,
forecasting, expert evaluation, critical analysis, grouping, interpretation and inductive,
mathematical models, and SWOT model.
6. New contributions of the dissertation
6.1. Academic and theoretical:
- The research thesis defines the concept of sectoral structure of urban economies (the
proportion between service sector and high-tech industry along with urban agriculture in an
economic structure); The concepts of shift in sectoral structure of economy of big cities towards
sustainable development (adjustment, renovation of industries in the direction of modernization as
well as aiming at sustainable development, simultaneously ensuring the sustainability of shifts and
contributing to the sustainable development of the whole economy); The methods of implementing
the transition in sectoral structure of an economy are to amend the investment structure and develop
large enterprises. Also, the research thesis identifies 5 conditions to change the sectoral structure of
urban economies towards sustainable development: (i) The determination of local authorities; (ii)
Large and potential enterprises; (iii) The support of residents and business communities; (iv)
The market; (v) Favourable infrastructure.
- The research thesis identifies two groups of indicators to assess the results and
contribution of the industrial transition to the economic development of the major cities: (1).
Group 1: Evaluation of results of the adjustment in industries in the direction of sustainable
development, including: (i) Assessment of transition trends; (ii) evaluation of speed of
transition; and (2). Group 2: Assessment of the contribution of the structural changes to
economic development, including: (i) Impacts of sectoral shifts to the increase of labour
productivity; (ii) the effectiveness of sectoral shifts to the growth of GRDP per capita; (iii)
the contribution of sectoral adjustments to the increase of economy’s openness and the
additional criteria (ICOR, The power consumed to generate a unit of GRDP, GRDP growth)
6.2. New findings and recommendations from the results of research and the survey of the
research thesis:
- The potentials and strengths of Hanoi have not been optimized. The sectoral
structure of the economy has several new features and progresses (industry and services
have increased rapidly; new products have appeared) but it has not yet modern. The pace of
structural changes towards sustainable development is slow. The contribution of the
transition to the economic development is limited.
- The causes of such weaknesses are: (1) Inappropriate investment structure; (2)
Inadequacies in managing and administering the transition; (3) Lack of large enterprises; (4)
Lack of high-quality human resources; (5) Unmodern and asynchronous infrastructure; (6)
Developing yet unsustainable market.
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- In order to ensure the sectoral shifts of Hanoi's economy towards sustainable
development until 2030, six basic solutions are required: (i) Renewing investment to meet the
requirements of transition towards sustainable development; (ii) improving the effectiveness
and efficiency of state management by having specific plans and adopting specific policies to
assure the shift carrying out correctly according to the determined orientations; (iii) developing
a community of large and effective enterprises; (iv) developing high-quality human resources to
match with the requirements of corporates and high-tech sector; (v) building modern and
synchronous infrastructure for economic development and cybersecurity; (vi) Simultaneously
developing markets as well as expanding both domestic and foreign markets.
7. Structure of the dissertation
Apart from the introduction, conclusion and recommendations, the dissertation is
structured into 4 chapters, including:
CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF SCIENCE WORKS RELATED TO THE SECTORAL
ECONOMIC STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE BIG CITIES IN THE
DIRECTION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
1.1. Overview of sectoral economic structural transformation in the direction of
sustainable development
In the world, among the theoretical research on the economic structural
transformation, the most common scholars are: Pasinetti (1981); Kuznets S; H.
Chenery; Fisher; Rostov, W.W; Thirwall ... In Vietnam, many scientists have done a lot
of research on the issue of sectoral economic structure, sectoral economic structural
transformation with the typical scholars: Bui Tat Thang (2006), Ngo Doan Vinh (2006),
Doan Thi Thu Ha (2010), Ngo Thang Loi (2012) ... Throughout the review, there have
been a number of research on economic structure (with 3 aspects: sectoral economic
structure, territorial structure and economic structure); Analyze and consider
structural transformation in the traditional sense. That is the structure of the three
sectors of agriculture, industry and services. The author agreed and inherited the
views and ideas that the structure is an attribute of the economy, which determines
the nature and level of economic development. In general, scholars have not
specifically focused on the sectoral economic structure in the direction of modern
classification (the field of production and services, material production, the CNC with
the rest, quality products with the rest).
1.2. Study on the sectoral economic transformation towards sustainable
development
The author reviews 9 foreign documents and 22 documents in the country. The author
finds that economic structural transformation in general, sectoral economic structure
in particular in the direction of sustainable development is a general trend of countries
in the period of accelerating industrialization and modernization and international
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economic integration. The author inherited the sustainable development theory of
WCED with the idea that modernization and environmental friendly are an important
issue not only in the present but also in the future. This is the fundamental theory used
in the dissertation. In addition, the author also noted that there have been some
researches on the sectoral economic structural transformation in the direction of the
sustainable development at national level, regional and local at provincial level.
However, the research presented a discrete and non-systematic theoretical framework
on the sectoral economic structural transformation of large cities in the direction of
the sustainable development in the context of international economic integration and
fourth industrial revolution. Most scholars have approached and analyzed the sectoral
economic structural transformation in the traditional view. Moreover, when studying
on economic structural transformation, scholars have not mentioned the rate of
economic structural transformation associated with the economic development
efficiency.
1.3. The study on influencing factors and conditions for the sectoral economic
structural transformation in the direction of sustainable development
Based on a review of 32 documents including foreign and domestic documents, the
author inherited the theory of institutional development, with the idea that the theory
of economic structure of a city or locality is not absent from good government and
friendly with investors. The author agreed and inherited the theory of economic
development based on capital investment with the idea that economic structure is a
consequence of investment, increased investment capital and investment capital
structural change. Change the nature and level of structural change for a country, a big
city. In addition, most of the researches mentioned factors affecting the economic
structural transformation such as market, natural conditions, government policies,
infrastructure system and human resources. These researches did not mention the
necessary conditions for the transformation of the public sector, the role of the state in
the transition to the public sector. These are issues that need further clarification.
1.4. The study on indicators to assess the sectoral economic structural
transformation towards the sustainable development
The authors reviewed the literature on domestic and international, commented that
there have been some studies on the evaluation criteria for sectoral structural
transformation in the direction of sustainable development at the national and
regional levels in a traditional approach. It only determines the proportion of
industries, sectors in GDP in the old method. As a result, the issues of the sectoral
economic structural transposition in a modern approach to the sustainable
development (evaluating the results and contribution of the economic structural
transformation to a city's development effectiveness) needed to be further studied.
Inheritance vector methods used the economic structural transformation and shift -
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share analysis to measure the contribution of the transition to economic development
efficiency of the big cities.
1.5. The study of sectoral economic structural transformation in Hanoi
Through a review of 15 researches on the development and transformation of sectoral
economic structure in Hanoi, there are a number of researches on growth and
economic structural transformation, with an emphasis on economic growth and
economic structural transformation but scholars have not mentioned the economic
structural transformation associated with the sustainable development and efficiency.
The results of the study also showed that the economic growth of Hanoi remained
unchanged as expected, the economic structural transformation in general and the
sectoral economic structural transformation in particular are still limited. So far, no
research has been done deeply and systematically on the theoretical basis and
practicality of sectoral economic structural transformation in Hanoi towards the
sustainable development.
CHAPTER 2. RATIONALES AND PRACTICAL EXPERIENCES
ON THE TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMIC INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
OF THE BIGGEST CITY UNDER SUSTAINABILITY DEVELOPMENT
2.1. Rationale
2.1.1. The sectoral economic structure of the big cities
2.1.1.1. Concept of economic structure
In Vietnam there are two levels of cities: central cities (big cities) and provincial cities.
The economic structures of large cities have different characteristics of the nature of
the big cities but also have the same characteristics of the provinces. The author
argued that "the structure of a large city is the sum of the qualitative and quantitative
correlations between the constituent elements, which express the special relationship
between the service sector and the part. The rest formed the economic system of the
big city. The components that make up the city's economy are always moving, subject
to a variety of factors and targeted to certain goals. The process of formation,
development and finalization of the city's economic structural control needs to be
controlled by the State management agency. " With this in mind, the big city's
architecture is different from the structure of the provincial cities.
2.1.1.2. The economic structure of the big city
The author agreed with the scholars who have mentioned "The sectoral economic
structure is a reflection of the interrelated relationship between sectors in the
economy as a whole, expressing the organic relationship and interplay of both in terms
of number and quality across sectors. These relationships are formed in socio-
economic conditions that are always motivated and directed towards specific goals”.
For large cities, especially the capital of countries, the distinctive characteristics of big
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cities are different. They have different characteristics of big cities. From there, the
author argued that "the sectoral economic structure of the big cities is a reflection of
the ratio of service sector to high tech industry and urban agriculture in the economic
system of the city. More specifically, the sectoral economic structure of the big cities is
the ratio of the service sector to the rest of the city, reflecting the level of social labor,
the level of development big city".
In order to identify the sectoral economic structure of the big cities in addition to
traditional assignments, the dissertation developed new criteria for review. It is
considered the correlation between material products and services, between the high
tech field and the rest; between the quality products and the rest to see more detailed
components that are more in line with modern economic trends.
 Sectoral internal structure of the major cities
+ Services: service sector plays a decisive role.
+ Industry: The industry plays an important role (nature and level) of a big city which
is a high tech industry with many value added and environmentally friendly.
+ Agriculture: Agriculture in the suburb is characterized by ecological agriculture
production
+ High-tech sector and the rest
In sectoral economic structure of big cities, high tech sector is a decisive factor,
including: (i) high tech agriculture (ii) high tech industry, (iii) high tech services.
+ The key products and the rest
For any big city, there must be quality products to demonstrate the economic
characteristics of that city and contribute to the economic characteristics of the
country.
2.1.2. The sectoral economic structure transformation in the direction of the
sustainable development
2.1.2.1. The concept and nature of the sectoral economic structure transformation of big
cities in the direction of the sustainable development
From the characteristics of the big city and the demand for sustainable development of
the economy, the author acknowledged "the sectoral economic structure
transformation of big cities in the direction of the sustainable development is considered
as modernizing the sectoral economic structure of big cities in the direction of
modernization and pursuing the goal of sustainable development. Its manifestation is
reflected in the results of the sectoral economic structure transformation and the
contribution of the sectoral economic structure transformation to the economic
development of the big city. At the same time, the sectoral economic structure
transformation of the large cities in the direction of the sustainable development must
ensure the sustainability of the transformation itself and contribute to the sustainable
development of the whole economy".
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The nature of the sectoral economic structure transformation of big cities in the
direction of sustainable development is reflected in the results and contribution of the
sectoral economic structure transformation into the economic development of the
major cities. That is:
 The result of the sectoral economic structure transformation of big cities in
the direction of the sustainable development
(i) The major components of reform and progress
+ Eliminate a part of the sector (products and sectors) that are available but not
effective or will be effective and too low.
+ Reducing division of industry (sub-sectors, products), but not high efficiency and
competitiveness is not high.
+ Develop new branches (branches and product lines) with high efficiency and high
competitiveness both in the present and in the future.
(ii) High tech products, quality products, commodity products increase
gradually
In the context of the fourth technology revolution, as the knowledge and new science
and technology will gradually replace and reduce the role of the early elements, the
economy developed on the basis of high intellectual and high tech, the industry needs
to develop based on high intellectual and high tech, specifically:
+ Develop high value added industries, high tech sectors using low-energy, having low-
pollution and adapting climate change; the large scale products in the local.
+ Develop the potential sectors (both static and dynamic), clearly showing the
specialty of the localities, leading sectors.
(iii) Global value chain and distribution networks
The focus of the sectoral economic structure transformation of big cities is to develop a
key products that join the global production networks and value chains.
 The contribution of sectoral economic structure transformation to the
economic development efficiency of the big cities, including:
(i) Labor productivity, GRDP/ person, the proportion of rich people increases
steadily
(ii) Environment is maintained and improved
(iii) Creating a harmonious development of the city economy
2.1.2.21. The method of the sectoral economic structure transformation of big cities in
the direction of sustainable development
 Change in investment structure and development investment methods
Inherit the theory of economic development based on investment capital. The
dissertation acknowledged that to change production orientation or technological
innovation requires investment capital and development investment, which plays a
decisive role in the sectoral economic structure transformation.
 Development of large enterprises with financial and technological potential
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Based on lessons learned from the success of some of the major cities in the world, the
dissertation mentioned one of the approaches of the sectoral economic structure
transformation in the direction of the sustainable development that is to develop a
large, financially driven enterprises that are considered to be the driving force behind
the development of a large city.
2.1.3. Factors influencing and conditions of the sectoral economic structure
transformation of big cities in the direction of sustainable development
2.1.3.1. Influencing factors
 Internal factors, including: (i) Local government and state management ability; (ii)
geography and technical infrastructure; (iii) the size of the city (economic scale,
population size and human resources); (iv) natural resource potential
 External factors, including: (i) The impact of globalization, international integration
and global markets; (ii) Influence of the fourth industrial revolution 4.0; (iii) impact
of the ASEAN Economic Community; (iii) The impact of national development
strategies on economic development and on the local economy
2.1.3.2. Conditions to sectoral economic structure transformation in the direction of the
sustainable development
 Condition 1: The will and political will of the local government
Inherit the idea of institutional-based development theory that the success or
failure of the world's economies is determined by economic institutions. The
sectoral economic structure transformation of big cities into a sustainable
development that can not be without a good government and friendly to investors.
 Condition 2: Businesses and investors have financial potential and technology
potential (associated with investment capital), strongly respond to the
provincial policy for the sectoral economic structure transformation of big
cities.
The enterprise is the subject that contributes to the process of orienting, investing,
managing and organizing the production of the products of an economy. Large,
global enterprises using modern technology will determine the nature and level of
the national and local economies.
 Condition 3: The support and response of the people and the business
community
The participation and support of the people and the business community is a very
important factor in ensuring the success of the transition. Increasing people's
participation in all activities is the best way to promote the participation of people, the
responsibility of the people for the program to change the nature of the program.
 Condition 4: Market
The market regulates the quality of products and services, thus directly affecting the
size and level of development of economic establishments. In order to compete well,
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the economic sectors in each country and each locality need to create products that
take into account the life cycle of products in an increasingly short-term trend.
 Condition 5: Infrastructure capability is conducive to the sectoral economic
structural transformation
Infrastructure associated with low input costs is always considered a critical condition
for attracting investors and for successful IPO transformation.
2.1.4. Criteria for evaluating the results and contribution of the sectoral economic
structure transformation to the economic efficiency of big cities
2.1.4.1. To evaluate the results of the sectoral economic structure transformation in the
direction of the sustainable development
 Assess the trend of the sectoral economic structure transformation
(i) Assessment of changes in scale and proportion in GRDP of major cities
Ti = (GRDPi: GRDP) .100% (1)
Of which:
+ Ti: contribution of the sector i in GRDP of the city
+ GDRPi: value added of sector i
+ GRDP: Gross Domestic Product of the City
The greater Ti - the greater contribution of the sector i to the gross domestic product
of the city.
(ii) Evaluate the growth rate of service sector in comparison with the growth rate of
manufacturing production
H1 = (Tservice: Tproducts) (times) (2)
Of which:
+ Tservice: Growth rate of service sector
+ Tproducts: Growth rate of products
(iii) Assessment of scale change, scale of CNC in GRDP in large cities
H2 = T high-tech i – T high-tech 0; % (3)
H2 reflects the difference between the proportion of high tech(T-high tech) year end
compared to the first year of the study. The greater H2, the greater change in the
proportion of high tech in the GRDP and the more effective it is. T- high tech is the ratio
of the value added of the high tech field to the total GRDP; it is calculated in %). The
weight of the high tech sector in GRDP is calculated as follows:
T high tech = (GRDP high tech: GRDP) .100%
Of which:
+ GDRP high tech: Added value of high tech field
+ GRDP: Gross Domestic Product of the City
(iv) Evaluate the change in size and density of quality products in GRDP of big cities
H3 = T quality product i – T quality product 0; % (4)
H3 reflects the difference between the final year quality products (T quality products)
over the first year of the study period. The larger H3, the greater change in quality
products in GRDP, T quality product is the proportion of value added of quality
products in total GRDP; it is calculated in %). The share of quality products in total
GRDP is calculated as follows:
T quality products = (GRDP quality products: GRDP) .100%
Of which:
+ GRDP quality products: value added of quality products
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+ GRDP: Gross Domestic Product of the City
 Evaluate the speed of the sectoral economic structural transformation
Using a vector-based approach to measure the VA ratios of each sector in the economy,
evaluate the rate of change in the economy. In this method, each sectoral economic
structure in a period is represented by a vector on the basis of the calculated VA
reflectance of each sector in the economy.
The angle  joined by these two structural vectors will show the change in the sectoral
economic structure between the two study periods. The change of the formula will be
calculated based on the value of cos by the following formula:
n
 S (t ) S (t )i 0 i 1
Cos  i 1
n n
 S (t ). S (t )
i 1
i
2
0
i 1
i
2
1
Where: Si (t0), Si (t1) is the proportion VA of the sector i in the base period and the
proportion of the sector i in the GRDP study period; φ is considered to be an angle by
two structural vectors S (t0) and S (t1).
By Si (t0), Si (t1) ≥ 0, cos φ≥ 0 (in terms of the Cos function), otherwise the angle  will
be in the first quadrant of the trigonometric circle, ie, the value of  from 00 to 90
(angle) or 0 <φ <90 or if the value of cos φ is known then the value of angle φ will be
immediately calculated.
If k is the transfer rate of the sectoral economic structural transformation, k is
calculated by the formula:
k = φ/90 * 100%
When cosφ = 0 or φ = 90, then the transfer rate k = 1, proving that the transfer is the
fastest (largest).
When cosφ = 1 or φ = 0, then the transfer rate k = 0, indicating that there is no sectoral
economic structural transformation.
Thus, the larger the angle φ (the smallest cos)), the greater the k, the faster the
(stronger) sectoral economic structural transformation.
2.1.4.2. Assess the contribution of the sectoral economic structural transformation to the
economic development of the big cities
(1) Contribution of the sectoral economic structural transformation to the
increase of labor productivity
Step 1: Calculate the comparative index of labor productivity (H4)
H4 = [(Ns - NsO): NsO] .100; % (5)
H4 reflects the difference between end-of-year labor productivity (Ns) compared to
the first year of the study period. H4 is as large as possible, showing the corrective
shift in the right direction. Labor productivity is calculated by the following
expression:
Ns = GRDP: L
Of which:
+ GRDP: Gross Domestic Product of the city
+ L: Laborers working in the national economic branches (social labor)
The higher the labor productivity, the faster the labor productivity increases as quickly
as possible and vice versa. This proves that the DIV is effective and vice versa.
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Step 2: Calculate the contribution of the sectoral economic structural transformation to
the increase in labor productivity
To calculate the contribution of the sectoral economic structural transformation to the
incremental labor productivity of the author's successor economy and to use the
sectoral weighted-weighted analytical approach to measure the contribution of the
DCE to increase productivity.
(2) Contribution sectoral economic structural transformation to increase GRDP
per person (H5)
Step 1: Calculate the GRDP/ Hp comparative index (H5)
H5 = [(Gi – G0): G0].100; % (6)
H5 reflects the difference in GRDP per capita between the year end and the first year.
H5 as large as possible, because that proves that the sectoral economic structural
transformation is in the right direction and effective. Where GRDP/ person (G) is
calculated by the following expression:
G = GRDP: D
Of which:
+ GRDP: Gross Domestic Product of the city
+ D: Population
G grows and grows as fast as possible and vice versa. When large G means the number
of poor people will be less or less.
Step 2: Calculate the contribution of the sectoral economic structural transformation to
the GRDP increase per person
GPD and GRDP/ person are closely related, the larger the labor productivity, the bigger
the GRDP/ person and vice versa. To calculate the contribution of the sectoral
economic structural transformation to the GRDP increase per person of the economy,
author inherited and used the sectoral weight transformation analytical method to
measure the contribution of the sectoral economic structural transformation in the
GRDP increase per capita.
(3) Contribution of the DPR to increase the openness of the economy (H6)
Openness of the economy is related to labor productivity. The openness of the
economy demonstrates the competitiveness of commodity products, the
competitiveness of the country and the reality of exporting goods to the world. The
higher the level of competitiveness is, the greater the competitiveness is, and therefore
the larger the exports, the greater the openness of the economy. According to this
principle, the analysis of the contribution of the sectoral economic structural
transformation to the increase of the openness of the economy is implemented in two
steps as follows:
Step 1: Calculate the index of openness of the economy (H6)
H6 = HMi - HM0; % (7)
The larger the H6, the better the economic openness (M) and the more effective it is. M
is the rate of the commodity or the degree of openness of the economy; it is calculated
in%). Economic openness is calculated by the following expression:
M = (X: GRDP) .100 (%)
Of which:
+ X: Total export
+ GRDP: Gross Domestic Product of the City
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M shows that the competitiveness of good goods means that the economy has an
effective transition.
Step 2: Calculate the contribution of the sectoral economic structural transformation to
increase the openness of the economy
(4) Comparative index of capital required to produce 1 GRDP unit (H7)
H7 as large as possible, ie the amount of investment required to create a GRDP. That
proves that effective transformations are effective.
H7 = [(ICORi - ICOR0)] (8)
ICOR = V: ΔGRDP
Of which:
+ V: Total social investment capital already implemented
+ ΔGRDP: The increase in the gross domestic product of the city during the study
period
(5) Power consumption comparison index (H8)
H8 = [(HĐi - HĐ0): HĐ0] .100; % (9)
The larger the H8, the lower the power consumption, and the more efficient it will be.
Conversely, the higher the power consumption for generating US$ 1 GRDP, the lower
efficiency is and the unreasonable sectoral economic structural transformation.
HĐ = Đ: GRDP
Of which:
+ Đ: Total electricity produced in the city
+ GRDP: Gross domestic product of the city (in USD or VND)
(6) Comparative index of growth rate of GRDP (Tg, of each year or annual average
of the period)
H9 = Tgi - Tg0; % (10)
T is calculated by the expression:
Of which:
+ GRDP0 and GRDPi: gross domestic product of the city in the base year and the end of
the study period
+ n-1: Calculated years (For example, calculating the GRDP growth rate in the period
from 2010 to 2015, the calculated years are 15-10 = 5 years).
2.1.4.3. The relationship between the sectoral economic structural transformation in the
direction of sustainable development and efficient indicators of economic development of
the big cities
The correlation between the change in the proportion of the components of the
sectoral economic structure and the change in labor productivity, GRDP/ person, was
analyzed through the following indicators: (i) Correlation between changes in the
proportion of high tech sectors in the sectoral economic structure with changes in
labor productivity , GRDP/ People of the big city; (ii) Correlation between change in
proportion of quality products in sectoral economic structure with change in labor
productivity, GRDP per capita in big cities
2.2. Practical experience on sectoral economic structural transformation and
lessons learned for Hanoi
Through studying and analyzing the experiences of some cities in the country (Ho Chi
Minh City, Da Nang) and abroad (Incheon, Shenzhen), the author has learned some
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lessons for Hanoi. It is noteworthy that the lesson on the selection of a protected area
with key areas and must have the conditions to move.
CHAPTER 3
CURRENT SITUATION OF SECTORAL ECONOMIC STRUCTURAL
TRANSFORMATION OF HANOI IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE PERIOD 2009 - 2017
3.1. Influencing factors and conditions for the sectoral economic structural
transformation of Hanoi in the period of 2009 - 2017
3.1.1. Factors affecting the sectoral economic structural transformation
+ Strengths: It has a favorable socio-political, geography, economy, a good human
resource, great tourism potential, etc., to develop the economy and promote the
sectoral economic structural transformation.
+ Weaknesses: Due to the rapid development of urbanization, many disadvantages are
for sustainable development
+ Opportunities: Transnational economic groups and international organizations have
chosen Hanoi as an important partner, connecting Hanoi with the world.
+ Challenge: The most attractive investment attraction is attracting big investment
projects applying high tech becomes more and more fierce. Administrative reform is
urgent and must be resolute. The policy is a big disadvantage that needs reforming
soon.
3.1.2. Conditions for the sectoral economic structural transformation
3.1.2.1. The political will and determination of the local government
Policies do not keep up with the need for the sectoral economic structural
transformation in the direction of sustainable development. The policies attracting FDI
towards technology transfer for the implementation of deepening growth has been
less well implemented. Improving the business environment through the PCI
indicators, PAPI shows that in most years, indicators PCI and PAPI of Hanoi rank the
fourth in the five major cities. Business environment constraints are hindering Hanoi
from attracting investment from strategic partners, which greatly affects the sectoral
economic structural transformation to sustainable development.
3.1.2.2. Businesses and investors
In the period of 2009 - 2017, the number of Hanoi enterprises increased 2.7 times.
From a business point of view, the large business team occupies between 1.9-3.5%
(there is no large enterprise and medium size enterprises on global scale are able to
soon become big enterprises). This is a great barrier to technological innovation, to
bring into full play the advantages of scale and the sectoral economic structural
transformation to sustainable development.
3.1.2.3. The support and determination of the people and the business community is
limited
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Many investors, people have not expressed their responsibility for the development of
the capital, many projects are not suspended causing waste of land resources. In
general, urban and suburban economic development has not been organized in a large
scale.
3.1.2.4. The development of the market
Unsustainable market development is characterized by the limited interconnection
between domestic and foreign markets for goods and services. The science and
technology market has not yet developed and is not linked to business activities of
enterprises. The provisions on copyright, protection of industrial property, technology
transfer ... have not yet facilitated the transaction of science and technology under the
market mechanism.
3.1.2.5. Urban infrastructure serves to transform the economic structure of the sector
The urban infrastructure system of Hanoi has been paid attention and invested in
modern direction, the airport and many routes and important junctions have been
completed but the development has not been synchronized, not link to the
development of urban space.
3.2. Current situation of the sectoral economic structural transformation in the
direction of sustainable development
3.2.1. Overview of socio-economic situation
In general, in the period 2009 - 2017, Hanoi's economy made a progress but slowly.
GRDP/ person, incomes and the living standard of people constantly improved, the
rate of the poor has decreased ... However, the power consumption kwh /GRDP
remains high and tends to increase. The ICOR remained high. The unemployment rate
from 3.18% (in 2008) dropped to 2.4% (in 2017) was still high. Hanoi still had a big
gab from HCMC on GRDP, state budget revenue, export turnover and FDI attraction.
3.2.2. Current situation of the sectoral economic structural transformation to
sustainable development
3.2.2.1. The major sectoral economic structural transformation
 Trend of the sectoral economic structural transformation
In terms of sector scale, the proportion of service sector contribution to the GRDP
Hanoi is not in line with the development trend of modern economies compared to the
capital of other countries in the world. The development relationship between the two
groups: products and service were not reasonable (products increased by 1%, service
increased by only 1.03%). In terms of high technology, the proportion of high tech in
GRDP has always tended to increase slowly, not reaching the planned target of 42-45%
of high tech in GRDP. This did not create driving forces for the economy to thrive and
develop efficiently. According to the quality products, the proportion of the quality
product industry has been on the rise since 2008 (04 quality products in the service,
industry and agriculture sectors), which represents a trend. This is in line with the
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requirements of sustainable development. However, there are signs of stagnation, not
achieving the requirements of economic efficiency, not creating a pillar for the
economy to accelerate and develop effectively. The development of new branches
(branches, products) is highly effective and highly competitive both at present and in
the future. It means inefficient economic structural transformation. The economy is not
modern.
 The speed of economic structural transformation
Using the vector method, the calculation of the transform coefficient in Hanoi shows
that the rate of change of the period 2009 - 2017 in terms of the three major branches
of the value of the angle φ is 3007’, the transfer speed is 3.41%, lower than that of Da
Nang city, HCM City. Considering sectoral focus towards sustainable development, it is
clear that most of the value of φ is less than 3007', which is lower than the overall rate
of change except quality products. The economic structural transformation toward the
goal of sustainable development is slow.
3.2.2.2. The economic structural transformation of the service sector
Services in the capital has grown rapidly, diversified and improved. However, the
service is not adequate and sufficient for a large city - the capital of Vietnam.
Specialized areas of the city such as finance and banking, science and technology,
outbound training and health care (serving foreigners), hotels and restaurants,
entertainment centers. Development is not commensurate with the requirements of
the capital. The rate of transformation according to the requirements of economic
structural transformation towards sustainable development with the value of angle φ
reached 2023, the speed of transformation is 2.48% that is very slow with the
expression of stagnation, speed of transformation is not stable, not reached goals.
3.2.2.3. The economic structural transformation of the industry sector
Considering the nature of the nature of the program, Hanoi's industrial transformation
has been more volatile. Most manufacturing industries, businesses have not joined the
global value chain and global distribution networks; most of the quality products of
Hanoi serve the needs of the domestic market. At present, the city has not yet found is
the key industrial product of the knowledge economy. Source industries and
supporting industries have not yet developed.
3.2.2.4. The economic structural transformation of the agriculture sector
The prominent feature of Hanoi's agriculture is the lack of urban agriculture (urban
characteristics and direct service to large urban areas). The pace of internal transfer
within the agricultural sector, in keeping with the sustainability objective, is very slow,
the application of high technology in agricultural production is still slow, the safety
and economic value, quality of food products. The proportion of high quality products
is still low. High quality, ecological products have slowly increased.
3.2.2.5. The economic structural transformation according to requirements of high
technology application
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The number of enterprises, especially big ones with investment potential, banks and
international organizations, was concentrated in Hanoi, but after 10 years, the value of
φ reached 1044 ', the speed of high tech field transformation is only 1.83% - very small.
This shows that Hanoi's economy is not really modern. The reason for this is the huge
investment in infrastructure while the FDI inflows into the high tech sector, such as
logistics, post and telecommunications, health care, culture, education and training
(accounting for 5%); The rate of investment for Hanoi Science/ Technology (GRDP) in
Hanoi was generally around 0.8% from 2011 to 2016.
3.2.3. Assess the contribution of the sectoral economic structural transformation
to the development effectiveness of Hanoi
3.2.3.1. Labor productivity
Labor productivity has increased slowly over the years, unstable and still low
compared to the requirements of big cities. The average labor productivity growth rate
for low-key sectors was low: services (5.50%), high technology (8.93%) and quality
products (7.61%) and there are signs of slowing down. The contribution of sectoral
economic structural transformation to the increase in labor productivity is largely
based on the expansion of production inputs through the shift of labor from lower
productivity sectors to high productivity areas. Attention to the capacity and depth of
technology leading to improvement of labor productivity in each industry sector is not
high. The science & technology factor are considered to have a great impact on labor
productivity. However, the application of science and technology to the economy,
production and business of enterprises has not met the requirements, production
technology is low.
3.2.3.2. The GRDP per capita
The per capita GRDP is not high, the rate of increase of GRDP per capita has not met
the requirements of the big city. The average per capita of the people in the period
2009 - 2017 is 6.93% per year. Compared to other regional capitals, the GRDP per
capita is still lower, which is among the lowest in South-East Asia, yet has not met the
major cities requirement. The slow pace of economic transition, the economic sectors
towards the goal of sustainable growth has low growth rate of labor productivity.
3.2.3.3. The openness of the economy
Overall economic openness is limited and slow to grow. For Hanoi, the opening of the
economy is limited, about 68% (lower than the national level of about 82%). The
economic structural transformation has made a great contribution to increasing the
openness of the economy, although this contribution is not suitable to the
requirements of the Capital. The opening of the economy does not create much of the
world's trade and partly indicates that economic efficiency and competitiveness are
not stable.
3.2.3.4. Effective use of investment capital
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The ICOR coefficient is unchanged, which is explained by the fact that the total
investment scale is small and meets only 70% of the demand that the project has
planned. The investment structure is inadequate, lack of focus, wastefulness and waste
are not really linked to development priorities, slow to renovate mobilization
institutions. The way and method of allocating and using resources is still in favor of
expanding in the short run. Up to now, in general, no specific criteria have been
established in determining "priority" in investment projects, aiming at the goal of the
economic structural transformation in the direction of sustainable development.
3.2.3.5. Power consumption
The power consumption for producing GRDP (Kwh/ GRPD) in the city tends to
increase, indicating that the power consumption is unstable and decreasing while the
electricity consumption per unit of GDP tends to decrease, affecting the goal of
environmental protection, friendly with the environment.
3.2.3.6. GRDP growth rate
Average economic growth rate was 7.41% per year, 1.58 times higher than that of the
whole country, but the growth rate of the year was not stable. Contributing to growth
of economic sectors to ensure sustainable development (high technology, quality
products) for the city economy is low (less than 15%). Economic growth of the capital
has not shown the leading role of growth in the region as well as the country (lower
than Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Bac Ninh ...)
3.2.3.7. The relationship between the level of the economic structural transformation and
the economic efficiency of Hanoi
The correlation between the change in the proportion of high technology in the the
economic structure with the change in labor productivity (1: 2.73), the change in the
density of the high tech field in the economic structural transformation with the
change of GRDP per person (1: 2.30). Replace the proportion of quality products in the
economic structural transformation with the change in labor productivity (1: 1.24);
Changing the proportion of CNC in the GPK with the GRDP change per person (1: 1.05).
The coefficient is unstable between years, not according to a certain trend, not
corresponding to the requirements set for a large city as the capital of the country.
3.3. General assessment
3.3.1. Result
Firstly, the sectoral economic structure of Hanoi has changed positively: the
proportion of service sectors, industrial zones increased, the proportion of agriculture
decreased in GRDP of the city. The proportion of service (from 63.1% to 63.9% of total
GRDP). The most noted is the proportion of high technology increased from 16.7% to
18.8%, the proportion of quality products increased from 24.2 to 28.5%. Initially
forming some products with higher volume and better quality such as hotel, banking
and telecom services ... In general, the nature of progress has been improved, the
transformation has been oriented toward sustainable development. The product is
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safe and user friendly and environmentally friendly and meets the requirements of
raising the standard of living of people.
Secondly, the internal structure of the industry has also changed positively: (i) The
service sector has developed dynamically through trading, commodity trading,
improve quality, expand market. Tourist activities are increasingly abundant,
telecommunications services, information has rapidly developed, reaching the level of
advanced technology compared to the region. Accurate banking activity is in line with
the trend of international economic integration in the context of the fourth revolution.
(ii) The industry also gained the development, increasing the proportion of high
technology, has appeared some manufacturers have advanced technology. Initially,
some new industries (electronic products, new materials, etc.) will be established. (iii)
The agricultural sector has shifted towards green production, improving production
towards sustainable development.
Thirdly, the successes in the economic structural transformation have contributed
positively to the growth and development of the Capital, contributing to the increase in
labor productivity, GRDP per capita, incomes and living standard of people are
constantly raised. Hanoi is step by step promoting the economic nuclear role of the
region and the country. These results have played a very important role in ensuring
political and social stability in the capital over the years.
3.3.2. Limitation
Firstly, according to the requirements of sustainable development, the slow pace of
economic transition has been characterized by sluggishness and lack of modernity,
bearing a bold economy as a result of outsourcing (the ratio of high tech sector
accounts for 18.8%, quality products accounts for 28.5%. The economic sectors ensure
rapid growth, efficiency, many high tech products and quality products develop slowly,
unstably, showing signs of stagnation, not showing the role of the key industries. The
economic structural transformation has not produced enough positive changes in the
economic structure between sectors.
Secondly, the economic structural transformation did not create a real stable
development; quality and development efficiency are low, specifically:
+ Labor productivity is still low, slow to improve, labor productivity growth rate is low
compared to big city, unstable, the contribution of the economic structural
transformation to higher level of labor productivity is largely based on the expansion
of the first factor Production through the labor transition from lower productivity to
higher productivity areas is less focused on capacity and depth of technology.
+ GRDP per capita, the rate of increase has not met the requirements of the big city.
There is a large gap between rural and urban areas. Lower than some provinces in the
Capital Region. The correlation between the change in the proportion of CNC and SPCL
in non-stable GRDPs / years is not consistent.
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